Indianapolis Colts by the Numbers: Week 4 Defensive Stats Every week Youth Clayton Geathers Jersey , I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.It’s been 4 weeks and I’m still not sure what this defense is.DVOA has the Colts D ranked 10th, which seems high to me, but not ridiculously so.Maybe I’m just being stubborn, but even if the “true” ranking is just average, that’s a hell of a lot more than I expected in August. Against the Texans, the defense ended up surrendering 37 points but 6 of that was in OT,7 was from a Texans defensive score, and another 7 was off of a micro-field gifted by another Colts turnover deep in their own territory. The point is that the defense played well enough to win this game. As always, I look to DSR first and a mark of 75% is indicative of giving a way a lot of movement up and down the field. If I remove overtime, then it falls to about 71% which is better than last week and also precisely what the Colts offense put up this week (and why DSR is an awesome stat: tie in DSR, go to OT).One driver of that slightly improved performance is that the Colts defense only gave away one first down on penalties. That was the Achilles heel against the Eagles that caused the “bend” to “break”.Last week, I wrote that I didn’t think 5 sacks and 2 turnovers was repeatable and since the defense notched 7 sacks and 1 turnover I guess I was technically right . . . but not really.TEAM TOTALThe defense gave up a lot of 1st downs (35% of plays)and let Houston convert 3rd downs at a 50% clip.Given that Indy forced Houston into an average 8.1 yards to gain on third, that should have been a lot lower. That is where you keep the “bend” from breaking.PASSINGHouston’s aDOT of 7.2 isn’t that long, so they weren’t really stretching the field Womens Andrew Luck Jersey , but their air yards per completion of 7.6 is longer, which is unusual. It means they completed long passes at a higher rate than short ones.Not sure what to make of that because this defense is supposed to experience the opposite. After the catch, the Colts limited the Texans to 5.4 YAC which ranks 12th for the week and something they have been good at all season. RUSHINGWhile the Colts surrendered 119 rush yards, they were stingy from an efficiency perspective. Only 6 of Houston’s 35 carries resulted in first downs. Often, that is a sign of a team running out the clock but that wasn’t the case here.The Colts did let Houston go 3 for 3 on rushing third down conversions but overall, less than 1 in 3 Texan runs were successful and weighted success rate ranks that as 4th best this week. CONCLUSIONAll the numbers point to Indy having an average to good defense, which is hard for me to believe, but there it is.If the offense can stay on the field and stop turning the ball over in opponent territory, the D may be able to shine a little brighter. SEASON TOTALS (per game) Pardon us, but there's no deflating the focus whenever Andrew Luck and the Colts head to Gillette Stadium.Like everyone else, Pro Picks would be leaving its readers flat if it didn't mention the saga of footballs without enough air that penetrated the AFC championship game in the 2014 season when New England hosted Indianapolis.It would also be shirking our responsibility to ignore the fact that, like four years ago, this is pretty much a mismatch. The Patriots get back Tom Brady's favorite wideout, Julian Edelman, a few days after seemingly fixing their problems on both sides of the ball as they routed Miami.The Patriots have won the past five regular-season matchups and the past seven overall.New England Malik Hooker Jersey , No. 7 in the AP Pro32, is a hefty — some might say inflated — 10陆-point favorite over No. 25 Indianapolis. We think it's no problem giving up that many.PATRIOTS, 33-19KNOCKOUT POOL: The Jaguars did the job rather easily against the Jets last weekend. This week, we'll get it out of the way early with the PATRIOTS.No. 27 (tie) New York Giants (plus 7) at No. 9 CarolinaThe Giants are showing no reason to think they can stay with the fresh and skilled Panthers.BEST BET: PANTHERS, 27-13No. 11 Green Bay (minus 1) at No. 24 DetroitThis line basically means who will win. Detroit will.UPSET SPECIAL: LIONS, 26-24No. 3 Jacksonville (plus 3) at No. 2 Kansas CityThe Jaguars have a defense to slow Chiefs Express, end KC's unbeaten season.JAGUARS, 23-21No. 1 Los Angeles Rams (minus 7) at No. 18 SeattleChiefs loss would leave one unbeaten team, which will remain so.RAMS, 27-16No. 5 Baltimore (minus 3) at No. 23 ClevelandDangerous game for Ravens after win at Pittsburgh.RAVENS, 30-24No. 20 Atlanta (plus 3) at No. 19 PittsburghTwo hugely disappointing, struggling outfits. Go with the healthier team.STEELERS, 23-21No. 15 Miami (plus 5 1-2) at No. 6 CincinnatiThe Dolphins were exposed in New England and face a surprisingly strong Bengals squad.BENGALS, 27-17No. 14 Minnesota (plus 3) at No. 12 PhiladelphiaA rematch of NFC title game, with both teams struggling in 2018. The Eagles are a different club at home.EAGLES Clayton Geathers Jersey Stitched , 23-17No. 21 Dallas (plus 3) at No. 26 HoustonA Texas showdown to be decided by the defenses. Houston's is better.TEXANS, 19-17No. 13 Washington (plus 7) at No. 4 New Orleans, Monday nightLooks like these Saints can beat you a bunch of ways, not just with Drew Brees.SAINTS, 31-20No. 10 Tennessee (minus 3 1-2) at No. 30 BuffaloThe Bills showed just how bogus that upset of Minnesota was last week by getting routed at Green Bay.TITANS, 20-9No. 16 Denver (plus 2 1-2) at No. 29 New York JetsWe don't believe in the Giants or the Jets.BRONCOS, 17-13No. 2 (tie) Oakland (plus 6) at No. 17 Los Angeles ChargersSomehow the Raiders keep every game close. This one, too.CHARGERS, 26-21No. 32 Arizona (plus 4) at No. 31 San FranciscoBoth teams showed more than expected last week. And lost.49ERS, 13-102018 RECORD:Last Week: Against spread (5-9-1). Straight up (12-3)Season Totals: Against spread (28-31-2). Straight up: (39-22-2)Best Bet: 2-2 against spread, 4-0 straight upUpset special: 2-2 against spread, 1-2-1 straight up
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